New article in Cities: Predicting Settlement Development Pathways

This study demonstrates that settlement development follows distinct, predictable pathways. By analyzing the dynamics of neighborhood compositions — reflecting different urban uses and intensities — our research identifies five archetypes of settlement development through. Using historical data and machine learning, the study shows that a settlement’s early characteristics allow the prediction of its development archetype. Using these insights, we predict future development pathways, showing that while some settlements are likely to remain within their established archetypes, others are more prone to shift into a different trajectory — highlighting opportunities for planners to guide these shifts.
Read the full article here: Räth, Y. M., A. Grêt-Regamey, X. Xia, L. Hurni, T. Mcphearson and M. van Strien (2025) Archetypes of settlement development on the Swiss Plateau: Identification, description and prediction, Cities, 159, external page https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2025.105791.