How might different futures of human-nature relations unfold in Switzerland?
To plan and effectively manage a functioning ecological infrastructure (EI) that supports biodiversity and provides nature's contributions to people, it is necessary to understand the biophysical and socioeconomic influences on its development. We published a new article on developing scenarios for EI development pathways until 2060 that account for different value perspectives on nature.
Scenarios are useful for considering development pathways under different future conditions. However, existing scenarios often do not incorporate the reciprocity of biophysical and societal changes and miss depicting positive futures. In our article, we present how to operationalize the Nature Futures Framework, developed under the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), into integrated normative and exploratory scenarios for Swiss EI. We followed a two-stage participatory approach methodologically aligned with the IPBES development. First, we elaborated positive visions for future EI with stakeholders in four regions of Switzerland. We then collaborated with experts to develop scenario narratives through a process comprising literature research, workshops and surveys. Using the Nature Futures Framework, we were able to design three visionary scenarios around intrinsic (nature for nature), relational (nature as culture), and instrumental values (nature for society) and contrast them with two exploratory scenarios for business-as-usual trends and hindering trends, respectively, for EI development. All five scenarios incorporate existing scenarios of future climate, population, and economic trends. Integrating both plausible and desirable developments, these scenarios may serve as a valuable tool in the planning of long-term measures to ensure a functioning EI in Switzerland.
The full paper is published Open Access in Sustainability Science:
Mayer, P., Rabe, SE. & Grêt-Regamey, A. Operationalizing the Nature Futures Framework for ecological infrastructure. Sustain Sci (2023).
external page https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-023-01380-7